Why Liverpool can still finish 4th
Posted by Eric Beard on April 4, 2010 | 58 Comments
Liverpool failed to claim three points away at St. Andrews in a 1-1 draw against Birmingham, a clear blow to the Reds’ pursuit of Champions League football. Although Tottenham lost to Sunderland 3-1, Manchester City moved up to 4th place in the Premier League standing with a comprehensive 6-1 away win at Burnley. Man City are sitting in 4th with 59 points from 32 games, Tottenham are in 5th with 58 points from 32 games, and Liverpool are in 6th with 55 points from 33 games. The table tells us that the race for the final Champions League spot is a two-horse race, but the table hardly tells the whole story. Here are two reasons why Liverpool still have a chance to bring Champions League football back to Anfield next year:
1. Manchester City and Tottenham have the toughest remaining schedules out of any team in the Premier League.
Manchester City are in very good form, however, The Citizens’ last six matches of the campaign are against Birmingham, Manchester United, Arsenal (away at the Emirates), Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, and West Ham (away at Upton Park). Though four points clear of Liverpool with a game in hand, how many points can City really expect to gain from these fixtures? Mancini would accept a draw against the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal, and it is tough to expect to gain three points against quality sides like Aston Villa, Birmingham, and Tottenham. Not to mention that in the last fixture away at Upton Park the Hammers could well be fighting for their lives to stay up in the Premier League. I cannot realistically see Manchester City finishing with more than 70 points.
Tottenham, on the other hand, have it no easier. Hosting Arsenal, then Chelsea, and then traveling to Old Trafford to face United, Harry Redknapp has it all still to do. After those three matches Spurs face Bolton, travel to the City of Manchester Stadium, and then close with Burnley. Again, I cannot see Tottenham taking more than 10 points from these closing matches.
2. Liverpool have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule
Liverpool’s five remaining fixtures: Fulham (Home), West Ham (Home), Burnley (away), Chelsea (home), Hull City (away).
With the exception of the Chelsea match at Anfield, there is no excuse for Rafa Benitez’s men to not take three points from every one of their remaining matches. Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres are finally hitting their form, the Reds are playing world-class football in front of their home supporters, and even with a poor away record there is no excuse for not winning against Burnley and Hull. It’s certainly possible that Liverpool could win all five of their remaining fixtures and finish with 70 points, which I think is the magic number for Champions League football this campaign.
What are your thoughts? Will Liverpool miraculously finish 4th or will Manchester City or Tottenham bring Champions League football home to their supporters next season?
Eric Beard is co-founder of AFootballReport.com, a site dedicated to the beautiful game.
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58 Responses to “Why Liverpool can still finish 4th”
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April 4th, 2010 @ 10:20 PM
In your wildest most optimistic red goggled eyed dreams. Liverpool’s so called divine right to finish top 4 has ended, accept it.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:27 PM
It is tough to imagine, but I think it’s worth recognizing how difficult it will be for City and Spurs to gain points in the next few games. By the way, I’m a Fulham fan. So no Red Goggles
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:31 PM
Rafa has given up on 4th which is why he took Torres off early
The reaction of Gerrard and Torres to the substitution was priceless
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:32 PM
well, we’ll just have to see won’t we?!
Man city i think can just might win 4′th, i can not see tottenham do it now, LFC must win all their remaining 5 and maybe they still have a chance.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:34 PM
Another article showing the self delusion among Liverpool fans.
Cast your mind back to August and the idiotic anticipation of the Premier League title.
A club financially geared to Champions League football are way of the pace.
Be interesting to see the crackpot ideas they will promote demanding Champions League qualification after finishing outside the top four in the EPL.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:41 PM
wishful thinking. Burnley hull and west ham will all be fighting for thier lives. Chelsea for the title and we seem to be struggling again. Man city or spurs may drop enough points but not both of them.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:44 PM
Wake up, it’s gone.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:45 PM
While i think it will be tough i would point to City’s record against the “Top 4 this season”.
P9 W5 D2 L2 – including cup games.
City have lost once at home all season taking an average of 2.2666 points per game.
City have beaten Arsenal twice this season 4-2 and 3-0.
City have beaten United at home this season although i accept a derby is a lottery.
City drew with Villa away from home
West Ham will be still fighting when they play Liverpool yet maybe not by the time City play them.
I have laid down the reasons why City will finish 4th and Liverpool will not. I look forward to the arguement put forward by a Spurs fan
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:46 PM
It’s forgiveable in amateur blogs, although how professional pundits get away with looking at the situation week-by-week is shocking!
Last week, Villa were written off for losing at Chelsea! What??? Did no-one see that coming? It doesn’t matter about the 7 conceded, nil pwa at Stamford Bridge should have been factored in to any predictive equation.
This is the deal:
LIVERPOOL will end up with 70PTS, by winning all remaining games except the draw at home to Chelsea.
VILLA will get 69PTS, winning all games except a loss at City.
CITY and SPURS will amass 69 and 67 POINTS, excluding their meeting at Eastlands.
SPURS’ will need to win to equal LIVERPOOL’s 70PTS, and will need a miracle to have kept pace with Liverpool’s goal difference over the run-in.
CITY will be just as mathematically-challenged should they draw with SPURS, although victory will guarantee a CL qualifying spot.
PREDICTION: CITY to progress, winning all games apart from taking only one point against MAN UTD and ARSENAL.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:48 PM
Dooom. Prepare for the impending doom. Its as simple as that.
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:50 PM
If anyone else out there is trying to predict the fortunes of the Mighty Spurs in the close season, may I point you towards this excellent tool:
news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm
April 4th, 2010 @ 10:54 PM
Also a word of warning to City fans… don’t gloat too early. We were seven points clear of Arsenal four years ago. We had one game to go, they had three – and we still finished fifth! :s
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:01 PM
Quite simply… Liverpool are not good enough, end of story.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:05 PM
City 4th. LIverpool 5th
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:07 PM
Benitez needs to go along with the yank idiots. Liverpool dont deserve 4th , Benitez negative tactics will be his undoing. Spurs or City have a dopted a far more attack minded approcah to the season and are deserving of the final campions league spot.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:11 PM
I can see Everton finishing above Liverpool, perhaps they should be looking behind them instead dreaming what could have been !
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:12 PM
Though a Spurs fan for 50 years, I’m afraid we’re nobbled by two factors: the fixture schedule and injuries. Liverpool have no divine right, but they’ve by far the easiest run-in and have recently enjoyed the return of key injured players. If Torres and Gerard don’t pick up knocks, most likely in Europe, Pool will take fourth. Villa, City and Spurs will simply have too much to do. We” settle for the FA Cup this year, the double next year.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:21 PM
Deluded Liverpool fans clogg up the airways again. When will you lot see the light, wake up and smell the coffee, get your heads out your arses, be realistic, get in the real world, get some perspective, be fucking realistic for one bloody minute. You have no devine right to finish fourth and you won’t. So shut the fuck up about it.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:24 PM
More pie in the sky from the mickeys, only one problem you have a fat spanish waiter in charge with a unique attitude to tactical substitutions, take Torres off chasing a win at Birmingham. We could ask Gerrard what he thinks but the TV showed it all.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:24 PM
realistically liverpool can expect 4 wins out of the remaining 5 fixtures, losing at home to chelsea and so gaining 12 points to their current tally giving 67 points overall, meaning manchester city and tottenham need 9 and 10 points respectively from their remaining 6 games,(taking goal difference out of the equation, in which both city and tottenham have a greater positive number than liverpool at this moment in time), meaning the chances of liverpool getting fourth are not impossible, but unlikely, throw aston villa into the equation and it looks set to be tight whoever takes fourth spot, good for the neutrals, but not for me as a city fan!
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:25 PM
You are correct, it is a two horse race, Spurs are done with too many injured players. Liverpool will give it there all, but City will pip them at the post.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:26 PM
Hey Stoney, as I said above, I’m a Fulham supporter. There is still a bit of football to be played, so lets see how everything turns out!
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:27 PM
Stratty, no one is gloating yet but I’m afraid your maths is wrong. If Liverpool win their remaining matches except for a draw with Chelsea they will only have 68 points! City have averaged 2 points per game since Mancini came in and the standard of opposition seems irrelevant this season – 11 points from 6 games against the Sky4 this season almost dead on our points average against all opposition. If we continue the Mancini form then we will get 71 points, which is why we feel reasonably confident.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:33 PM
Torres could win everything his heart desires at City… I know this comment will stir up Liverpool fans, but City are the future of EPL and Europe. Our owner has the money and desire to make us number 1 and Fernando Torres needs to be a part of it.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:35 PM
Some pretty basic sums going wrong here…Stratty, Liverpool winning four games and drawing with Chelski = 13 points, plus existing 55 = 68…not 70. Eric saying all winnable except Chelski then reversing and saying they’ll win all five….to get to 70 (again).
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:38 PM
City fans seem nervous. I guess if Spurs had slipped to the third tier in recent years, I wouldn’t believe promises of heaven either.
Be careful, the owners are not famed for their patience, and could easily pull out if City do not make 4th this season. The money belongs to Abu Dhabi, not City.
Look what happened with the Qataris at County.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:45 PM
Right, Ive had another look. We can do it if we win one of our three nightmare games, and win at City.
We always beat City, and we beat Chelsea at home last season.
Also, I hope Harry plays kids at Wembley (I know he won’t but I wish he would!) Who gives a toss about the FA Cup?
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:47 PM
I think we have to do it this year, cos realistically, I can’t see the Filth being off the pace next season, and it will be hard to catch City, United or Chelsea.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:52 PM
Poor stratty do you clutch straws when there is nothing else to argue with ?
We do not need your patronising comments,just to re inforce the owners ambition at the richest club in the known universe they are planning a billion pounds investment within the surrounding area, including a proposal to build an extra tier on the existing ground to accomodate 80.000.
Either that or we just build another, so save your words of childish warning we are way beyond being worried about short term ownership.
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:52 PM
What so West Ham fight for their lives against City but not the dippers, ohhhh how the mighty fall!!!!
April 4th, 2010 @ 11:57 PM
Oy Steve! I personally think there will be a 1-1 draw when Chelsea visit Anfield, but I wanted to point out that it is a very real possibility that Liverpool could beat Chelsea. I think Liverpool will probably finish on 68 points as well, but if they do manage to win against the Blues, then they have a very good chance of ending up in 4th place with 70 points. Again, that’s just my opinion. Wanted to clarify that point!
April 5th, 2010 @ 12:10 AM
I think its funny how liverfool fans can’t accept they are past it and history does not win trophys, anfield will soon have boarded up windows just like the rest of the crumbling city called liverfool
April 5th, 2010 @ 12:39 AM
If spurs had beaten wolves, or beaten hull at home or stoke or score that last min pen against evertone we wud be easily 4th, all games given the circumstance should have won, if city had not gone on their drawing streak they would easily been 4th, your all being pathetic and arguing over a funny old game! Which throws up these much loved surprises! What I will say is we are (spurs) being written off cos we have the top 3, we beat chelsk twice at home recently and at wembley, arsenal have a weaker team with injuries, so don’t write anyone off and stop arguing so strongly over the future let’s try and have a decent , respectable debate
April 5th, 2010 @ 12:58 AM
Also I’m not the biggest bin dippers fan, but to class them as ‘past it’ is very naïve, they came second last season with mostly the same team. Leeds past it, forrest past it, blackburn past it, liverpool at the moment are still very much in it, what ever it is. ( Still pesky scousers tho!)
April 5th, 2010 @ 1:21 AM
The OP’s arguement is based on Liverpool winning 4 and drawing against Chelsea. Do you really think Liverpool can do this based on the previous 33 games? It’s still gonna go to final day for me
April 5th, 2010 @ 1:31 AM
“the Reds are playing world-class football in front of their home supporters” lol oh please, no more my sides are splitting.I keep reading that line and laughing out loud! Unbelievable head-in-the-sand stuff. World class against who? To win your last 5 games you’re going to need to export that ‘world class football’ to other grounds. One of the most deluded posts i have ever seen!
April 5th, 2010 @ 2:11 AM
The last 5 minutes of the last day of the season. That’s when the prizes will be awarded, mark my words. Shivers down the spine time you lot.
April 5th, 2010 @ 2:48 AM
Hey Stratty. How can Liverpool get 70 points with 4 wins and a draw. 13 plus 55 equals 68 you twit.
April 5th, 2010 @ 3:12 AM
Its going to come down to the last day of the season as to who comes 4th. None of the three teams in the running have shown the consistency to manage to string together several wins to run away with it. If Tottenham get their full squad back, ie: Corluka, Dawson, King, Bale, Hudd, Palacios, Lennon, Modric, Defoe, Pav. Subs: Gud, Crouch, Bassong, Ekotto, then they have a decent chance.
April 5th, 2010 @ 6:56 AM
I am with you here Eric, I have had my ‘red eyed goggles’ all over the last fixtures of the season and in reality Spurs and Man City should only be getting a point at max against the top 3 however if they do manage a victory against any of them then fair play. We are clutching at straws here big time and I am embarresed for our side, we most certainly over achieved last season and maybe should of expected 4th or 3rd. This season has been a shocker and im gutted that we are actually having to rely on other sides to help us finish in a poor 4th position. My prediction for 4th place is City
April 5th, 2010 @ 7:46 AM
mark my words, TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR WILL FINISH 4TH…. and yes, I have my Spurs goggles on
April 5th, 2010 @ 8:55 AM
Although you are correct with the run in for city being tricky can I just remind you we have only lost 5 of the 32 games so far (the same as chelsea) we have beaten chelsea home and away arsenal twice and united at home. City have performed much better against the top sides. If liverpool win 4 of their five games we’d need nine points to finish above them and that will happen. Just accept that the top of the premier league is changing and the debt the yanks have laid on you is going to mean mr torres will still be playing champions league football next year but it will be in a sky blue shirt
April 5th, 2010 @ 9:44 AM
I’m a season card holder at City and I follow them home and away. Liverpool are out of it in my opinion, it’s a two horse race between City and Spurs, and it could easily go either way. I can’t stand Redknapp but he’s an excellent manager and even though he has to play the top three teams over the coming weeks I would not be surprised if he took points from them.
April 5th, 2010 @ 11:57 AM
Er Stratty, very well thought out…except that if Liverpool win four, and draw at home to Chelsea they don’t get 70 points, they get 68.
Go back to school and stop dreaming. Liverpool came to prominence in 1964 after being around for 70 years, now its over; don’t worry about it, another 50 years and they will be back again.
April 5th, 2010 @ 1:29 PM
spurs have injurys ,city have depth of squad and experienced champions league players ,liverfool have history ( they bragged so much about it pre season )i know who my money will be on
April 5th, 2010 @ 2:17 PM
Lennon should hopefully be back for the Arsenal game and with the injuries they have we should really press them for the win if we can nip a point off Chelsea and ManU beat Man City 4th should be ours. Whoever gets it in the end its gonna be exciting watching. Loserpool have no chance they blew it the weekend.
April 5th, 2010 @ 2:38 PM
Still think it’s a three horse race personally. As a City fan I know how easy it is for our team to fluff things up. With Spurs’ injuries they could struggle but are still in with a shot and and capable of doing it in my opinion. I think Liverpool could take advantage of both these problems. But they will have to win every game until City and Spurs are out of it.
April 5th, 2010 @ 3:04 PM
Liverpool ought to be thankful Saha didn’t get a penalty otherwise they might have been looking at no European football next season, and any more slip ups could make this a fact ot life. As a City fan I believe it is between us and Spurs, Liverpool aren’t good enough, Villa are workman like and so will fall short. The injuries a Spurs may affect their push for 4th, so it really is upto City and, as everyone keeps pointing out, Mancini’s average points tally would point to us getting 4th.
April 5th, 2010 @ 5:57 PM
Hi this is Paddy Power i will refund all losing bets if Davspurs exposes Tempo cheats before is beloved Spurs get the fourth spot he is looking at Chelsea after there bollocking from there paymaster , Sunderland after Bruce nearly got sacked Birmingham who never seen the 40 million and brought the mummy Phillips out of is Tomb to score. Everton who lost every one of there players and still won yet where shite in Europe and slow, Man City little fat man who runs runs runs and Bellamy who looks like Ronaldo one minute and injured the nextwhen Davspurs starts talking about dodgy Tempo and Viera is own fans booing him and he scores and plays good Magic man this is the year of players shaping up to there critics like Betner rubbished in the papers and he delivered the next game and cant stopp scoring .City cant score then six, there is a chemical for every ailment even bad form so don’t think any game is easy Liverpool fans. I would sooner play big teams and not rubbish Teams enhanced with bad Referee’s and cough mixture
April 5th, 2010 @ 6:29 PM
I looked at all remaining fixtures and believe liverpool still got the best chance. With man city and our ( spurs fan ) games coming up, they are tough. With the injuries we have at the lane i’m just hoping we can pull something out of the bag starting against a5ena1!!!
April 5th, 2010 @ 6:52 PM
I want Spurs to take fourth, but if we dont anybody but Liverpool will do, anybody.
April 5th, 2010 @ 7:20 PM
Why has everyone written off Villa here? They are only 1 point behind liverpool with a game in hand and have the easiest run in of the lot. For me, I think they’ll sneak it.
April 5th, 2010 @ 7:35 PM
It’s City’s to throw away now (as we have the points & goal difference back, thanks Burnley) I think Liverpool are out of the running now to be fair because i simply can’t see them not dropping more points against mediocre teams. Tottenham are still firmly in the running – it’s going to come down to a match at Eastlands which is going to be as good as a cup final.
All I can say is – whoever finishes 4th – deserves it on the merit of the season as a collective. Good luck
April 5th, 2010 @ 8:58 PM
First, piss on the chap that calls us Yanks idiots. I teach my youth teams to play and expansive, passing game and use a very attacking formation (3-4-3) though I admit, having soem of the best athletes and smartest footballers in the division playing defense and keeper, allow us to it….
As far as LP finishing 4th? They have an outside chance, but I think it is city’s to win or lose, depending on which team shows up to each of it’s last 6 matches. City have looked brilliant at times, terrible at other times, and flat out boring on a few. They seem to have found themselves recently and their quality of depth is showing at the right time. I say, City wins fourth and it’s a 3 dog fight for 5th between Villa, Spurs and Pool. Got to play the games first though. I can’t wait for each and every game. I love footie! Oh yes, and I do have my Blue Goggles on, as well as my Blue Tevez kit…. though I should have gotten “El Apache”….
Come on City! also, got to give a hand to the faithful Burnley fans that didn’t leave that game and endured the mauling, all the while, chanting and encouraging their club. True fans for sure! Cheers all!
April 7th, 2010 @ 1:26 PM
My comments go as follows:
Man City: Very tough run in, every game there is a difficult one and they have already shown that after an emphatic win they can go back to draw, lose, draw, draw form.
Spurs: Extremely tough run in, facing all three title contenders then Man City (which could well be a draw).
Liverpool: Easier run in (bar Chelsea who on their day Liverpool could still beat). West Ham will be a draw. Liverpool, however, have played one game more than the others.
Aston Villa (whom you, rather rudely or ignorantly ignored): One potentially tough game left, Man City away. Lost disgustingly at Chelsea but ironically have the cup semi to amend that psychological blow. 4 winnable games in a row, plus winnable last game of season. Game in hand over Liverpool. Have proved inconsistency but dont write them off!!!
Oh, please dont just ignore Villa in future
Hope I get to say that in May!!
April 7th, 2010 @ 1:57 PM
Please, please please, Spurs or Villa for 4th. True local clubs with local supporters.
Liverpool have been giving it the big one for too long, as for man shitty, for a nobody club to be competing in Europe on the back of Sheikh investors money will just give Blatter and Platini all the ammunition they need to close down the Premier League!
And it will p**s me off to see glory chasers walking round places like London and Birmingham wearing moneychester shitty shirts in the future!! (Just like they have done in the past with Newcastle, Chelski and even Blackburn!)
Ps I live just off Green St where Upton Park is an as a born and bred Brummie wear my Villa shirt with pride and seem to get respect of the local Hammers (bless em) for being a true fan.
April 7th, 2010 @ 7:07 PM
I love the fact u all hate us (liverpool) yes we’ve got a decent history. But all ive noticed on these chats things is that its not liverpool fans going on about it its other supporters talking about it, moaning about it, whinging about it.
Sorry for winning trophies, maybe one day you lot can win something worth talking about instead of the fa cup or the league cup, gotta feeling tho the world has got a long wait.
Still can’t believe im on here arguing over finishing 4th! its embarresing, what a shocking season we’ve had, will be so funny if u all cock it up.
May 6th, 2010 @ 12:04 AM
Here is the real deal:
You can take you self serving smugness and sense of entitlement, wrap it up with a large does uber investment and read the writing on the wall that shows the team you all wrote off, the team that didn’t spend a quarter of a billion pounds, and that didn’t guarantee 4th, is actually 4th , signed and sealed with a game to play.
COYS